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Photovoltaics follow Moore’s Law

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Photovoltaic module price per watt, 2006 dollars

Photovoltaics follow Moore’s Law from David Leppik.

Most things – not just technology – follow a version 2 of Moore’s law, which is to say that advancement happens with a compounded rate, for example the number series that children like: 2+2 = 4, 4+4=8, 8+8 = 16 … 32, 64, 128, … plot this and you will see a rapid growth curve.

The same is  true for photovoltaic solar panels, the ones that convert the rays of the sun to electric energy, mostly due to advancements in nano-technology.

In 2008, David Leppik argued with his data analysis that the $1 mark will not be reached until post 2020. Moore’s law surprised us and in 2009, the mark was reached (note how progress went the wrong way from 2004 to 2008 in the graph). A quantum leap happened in 2009: “First Solar Passes $1 Per Watt Industry Milestone”

This is important for the future of the world, because there is a tipping point when oil is no longer relevant: the day that the price per watt from oil is more expensive than a convenient substitute. And that happens at about $1. The dream of fusion power is already real: it just happens to be a real big fusion power plant called the sun, that is the reality. Our job is to tap the radiation it sends our way, smiling at us.

The first change is to connect solar photovoltaic power to the utility network grid. That has happened on experimental ways for a long time now. Ones it is a feasible technology, political change won’t be that hard to imagine: after all, who really thinks it is very smart to be dependent on far-away countries ruled by … not so democratic leaders.

Energy is THE source of our productivity. Without it, everything comes to a grinding halt immediately. And with cheaper energy comes revolution.

It will be in our lifetime that energy is no longer a cost nor an environmental issue. It will bring about changes that we cannot imagine; because the cost per watt, with Moore’s law in mind, all things considered will go towards zero, since the sun is an eternal energy source (OK the sun explodes in about 5 million years and becomes a giant red star, but hey, don’t worry). The energy density of the suns rays are so powerful that with existing technology today, the efficiency is min. 20% of incoming energy to electric energy in solar panels. If the Sahara desert was converted to one big solar power plant, it would be capable of powering the worlds TOTAL energy consumption 18 times (barrels of petroleum, cubic meters of natural gas, watts of hydro power, etc.).

https://i0.wp.com/www.landartgenerator.org/blagi/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/AreaRequired1000.jpg

Map from Land Art.

Think industrial revolution. It was all about tapping into coal via steam, which made chemical power into mechanical power for cheap. The revolution was not only one which created wealth, higher standard of living – but it also sparked a political revolution, which eventually got rid of feudalism and archaic aristocratic rule. Finally it empowered the building of new tools and technologies, which again gave rise to new technologies, which again… 2+2 = 4, 4+4=8 …

We are at a very very important tipping point.

The next major advancement needed to substitute our existing energy sources with solar power, is battery technology. I will write about that later on, but for now please note a couple of keywords: Ford is producing electric vehicles aggressively, Audi, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Daimler are equally doing just that. Obama is subsidizing battery technology startups and corporate programs aggressively as part of stimulus plan. Part of his plan is that America shall be the leading nation on all things solar in the future.

More interesting background:

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Written by Bernino Lind

October 1, 2009 at 11:43 am

3 Responses

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  1. All we need now is a solar cell that can collect dark energy.

    Or else we need solar at below 50 cents a watt so we can spend the other 50 cents on storage.

    There is still a ways to go. And then you also have to consider coal based electricity which is rather cheaper than oil based. So there is farther yet to go in places like Europe, the USA, China, India, etc.

    As a way to jump start the 3rd world? Go get ’em.

    I like Polywell Fusion which is rather closer than ITER.

    M. Simon

    October 2, 2009 at 9:23 am

    • With Moore’s law applied to photovoltaics (powered by nano tech) I bet you we will go below 50c. The same applies for battery tech. Once that happens, the hidden costs (environmental) of fossil fuels will make the decision for politicians to stop old power plants very easy. No matter what, cars are big sinners in oil consumption – getting to an electric car fleet is all about battery tech as electricity will become cheaper and cheaper; eh… home based solar power to charge your car 🙂

      And yes, China and India NEEDS to be powered by solar power. Africa comes later.

      Bernino Lind

      October 2, 2009 at 9:42 am

  2. Check out http://www.nanosolar.com. While they still do not disclose the final price per watt they claim that total costs will be around 1/3 of that of First Solar – and they have a production method that seems to be able to keep on reducing costs when it will be ramped up further. So maybe we already are at the 0.50c mark…

    Peter

    October 16, 2009 at 1:26 pm


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